K7RA Propagation Bulletin #48 (updated on: 28/Nov/16)
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP48 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 28, 2016 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP048 ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA Over the past reporting week (November 17-23) average daily sunspot numbers decreased from 28.7 to 14.1. Average daily solar flux decreased from 78.5 to 77.1, although last week's bulletin erroneously reported average solar flux for the November 10-16 period as 45.8. Thanks to several sharp-eyed readers who caught this, including IK2AGX, G8XTJ, AA2F, K6MSM, and N8II. Average daily planetary A index shifted from 12.7 to 6.4, and average mid-latitude A index changed from 10.1 to 4.7. Predicted solar flux from NOAA is 79 on November 25-26, 80 on November 27-29, 79 on November 30 through December 1, 84 on December 2-4, 80 on December 5-7, 78 on December 8, 76 on December 9-14, 75 on December 15-18, 78 on December 19, 80 on December 20-22, 82 on December 23-28 and 84 on December 29-31. Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12 and 10 on November 25-27, 8 on November 28-29, 10 and 8 on November 30 through December 1, 5 on December 2-6, then 15, 12, 18, 20 and 10 on December 7-11, 5 on December 12-17, then 8, 15 and 30 on December 18-20, then 25, 15 and 12 on December 21-23, 8 on December 24-26, and 5 on December 27-31. OK1HH sent the following geomagnetic forecast on behalf of the Czech Propagation Interest Group for the period November 25 to December 21, 2016: "Geomagnetic field will be: Quiet on December 3-6, 14-16 Mostly quiet on November 28, December 1-2, 13, 17-18 Quiet to unsettled on November 27, 30 Quiet to active on November 25-26, 29, December 7, 9. 10-12, 19, 21 Active to disturbed on December 8, 20 "Increased solar wind from coronal holes is expected on November 25-27, December 9-15, 18-21 "Reliability of predictions is reduced at present." Thanks to Paul Merrill, W7IV for this fascinating article from NPR about space weather. http://n.pr/2fCGp8F Thanks to David Moore for this: https://shar.es/18maoo Bil Paul, KD6JUI sent this: "Today, November 22, solar flux was in the 70s, but operating from my kayak with 10w and 9' vertical dipole (see article about it in November 2016 QST) -- 17 meters was hopping today, or should I say skipping? "Within an hour's time I had four QSOs at length with OK, CA, and two VEs. And was getting signal reports ranging from S5 to S9. Also heard Brazil coming in (but couldn't land him) and probably Central America (he had a heavy accent). There was some QSB. Being on the water in the kayak (fresh water) seems to greatly augment my signal." Jon Jones, N0JK reports: "6 meters exploded with sporadic-E in North America the evening of November 23 and again most of Thanksgiving Day. "Wednesday evening there was strong sporadic-E on 6 across the southeast states. I worked K5GKC (EM13) from my mobile set up near Kansas City (EM28) with a 10 W MFJ-9406 and 1/4 wave vertical about 0048z Nov. 24. He was quite loud. I saw some real DX spotted including ZF1EJ and NP4BM working into New England and XE2X, XE2OK and XE2JS to the Midwest. Did not note any Es - TEP to South America, wonder if any readers know of any from mainland North America? "Thanksgiving Day Nov. 24 again sporadic-E. I logged KV4VO (EM90) from home in Lawrence, KS (EM28) at 1625z 11/24 on 50.130 MHz He was running 50 W to a vertical antenna and peaked to 5x9. Saw many spots across the southeastern states. The C6AFB/b (FL16) was spotted by many. It is now on 50.063 MHz running only a few watts. The magnetic field was active due to a coronal hole solar wind stream with the Kp peaking to 5 - storm levels." John Fitzgerald, G8XTJ noted today that the planetary K index was 5, and this didn't look too promising for the CQ World-Wide CW Contest this weekend, "though 6Y9X a good 579 on 10MHz as I type 1044 UTC." Jeff, N8II in West Virginia wrote: "The skip zones were very long for ARRL Sweepstakes SSB, even worse than CW, but I still managed to make a lot of QSOs. Stations closer than NY or NC were difficult to work on any band from early evening into the night on Sunday and same happened a bit later Saturday. The K index stayed around 1, I think, so western Canada and AK were fairly easy to work at least on 20M and western Canada strong at times on 15, best 15M conditions were in 1700Z hour." As noted above by G8TXJ, the CQ World-Wide CW Contest is this weekend. See http://www.cqww.com/index.htm for rules. Also note this interesting analysis of SSB signal quality (although the SSB contest was at the end of October) http://www.cqww.com/ssbsignalquality.htm . If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at firstname.lastname@example.org. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers for November 17 through 23 were 27, 28, 22, 11, 0, 0, and 11, with a mean of 28.7. 10.7 cm flux was 78.6, 77.6, 76.8, 76.4, 75, 77.3, and 77.7, with a mean of 78.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 3, 4, 6, 12, and 13, with a mean of 12.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 2, 2, 4, 9, and 11, with a mean of 10.1.
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